segunda-feira, 20 de maio de 2013

Sentimentos e ciclos economicos

Lembram do refrao da musica "Fui eu", de Jose Augusto:

Sentimento, dói com o tempo
E a solidão não quer parar de machucar
Sentimento, dói com o tempo
Meu coração não quer ninguém no teu lugar.



Ela inspirou os pesquisadores George Angeletos e Jennifer La'O. Enfim, os sentimentos nao soh aumentam a dor no coracao do homem abandonado, como tambem possuem efeito sobre o ciclo economico:

Sentiments
George-Marios Angeletos
MIT and NBER
Jennifer La’O
Chicago Booth and NBER

Abstract:This paper develops a new theory of fluctuations—one that helps accommodate the notions of “animal spirits” and “market psychology” in unique-equilibrium, rational-expectations, macroeconomic models. To this goal, we limit the communication that is embedded in a neoclassical economy by allowing trading to be random and decentralized. We then show that the business cycle may be driven by a certain type of extrinsic shocks which we call sentiments.
These shocks formalize shifts in expectations of economic activity without shifts in the underlying preferences and technologies; they are akin to sunspots, but operate in unique-equilibrium models. We further show how communication may help propagate these shocks in a way that
resembles the spread of fads and rumors and that gives rise to boom-and-bust phenomena. We
finally illustrate the quantitative potential of our insights within a variant of the RBC model.


Versao Publicada na Economterica AQUI.

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